中国体育科技

目的：区分青少年射箭运动员专项体能的核心指标与基础支撑指标，明确各指标对射箭专项成绩的相对重要性，并检验心理坚韧性和自我效能感在专项体能指标之外的补充意义。方法：选取335名13～18岁青少年射箭运动员，运用测试法、问卷调查法采集数据，运用相关分析、多元线性回归与随机森林回归进行统计分析。结果：1）专项成绩与拉弓停时（r=0.539,P<0.001）、平均握力（r=0.550,P<0.001）呈显著正相关，与卧拉、心理坚韧性和自我效能感的相关性均未达到显著水平（P>0.05）。2）控制性别和运动等级后，专项体能模型解释率为43.7%，拉弓停时（β=0.304,P<0.001）、平均握力（β=0.230,P<0.001）与卧拉（β=0.097,P=0.022）均具有显著正向解释作用，但卧拉的标准化回归系数值较小。3）纳入心理变量后，模型对成绩变异的解释率小幅提高至44.5%，拉弓停时与平均握力仍具有显著解释作用，卧拉、心理坚韧性与自我效能感的独立解释作用均未达显著水平（P>0.05）。4）随机森林回归结果显示，平均握力和拉弓停时的相对重要性高于卧拉。结论：1）拉弓停时和平均握力分别表征固势保持能力与末端控制能力，是解释青少年射箭成绩差异的核心专项体能指标；2）卧拉主要反映上肢专项力量储备，具有基础支撑价值，但其相对重要性弱于拉弓停时和平均握力；3）心理坚韧性和自我效能感未能在专项体能之外显著正向解释专项成绩的个体差异；4）青少年射箭训练应优先监测拉弓停时与平均握力指标，促进基础力量向专项动作稳定性转化。

Objective: To distinguish core indicators from basic supporting indicators of sportspecific physical fitness in adolescent archers, clarify the relative contribution of each indicator to archery performance, and examine the additional explanatory value of mental toughness and self-efficacy independent of sport-specific physical fitness. Methods: A total of 335 adolescent archers aged 13-to-18 years were enrolled. All data were collected using fitness tests and questionnaires and statistically analyzed via correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, and random forest regression. Results: 1) Archery performance was significantly and positively correlated with draw-hold time(r=0.539, P<0.001) and average grip strength(r=0.550, P<0.001), while no significant correlations were observed for prone pull strength, mental toughness and self-efficacy(P>0.05). 2) After controlling gender and athletic level, the sport-specific fitness model explains 43.7% of the variance in archery performance. Draw-hold time(β=0.304, P<0.001), average grip strength(β=0.230, P<0.001), and prone pull(β=0.097, P=0.022) exhibited significant positive predictive effects, with a relatively small standardized regression coefficient for prone pull strength. 3) The inclusion of psychological variables slightly increased the proportion of variance in performance explained by the model to 44.5%. Draw-hold time and average grip strength remained significant predictors, while prone pull strength, mental toughness, and self-efficacy show no significant independent predictive effects(P>0.05). 4) The random forest regression analysis indicated that average grip strength and draw-hold time possessed higher relative importance than prone pull strength. Conclusions: 1) Draw-hold time reflects full-draw posture maintenance ability, while average grip strength characterizes movement end-point control ability. Both are core sport-specific physical fitness indicators accounting for individual differences in adolescent archery performance. 2) Prone pull strength mainly reflects upper-limb sport-specific strength reserve and provides fundamental supportive value for archery performance, while its relative contribution is lower than that of draw-hold time and average grip strength. 3) Mental toughness and self-efficacy failed to significantly explain the individual differences in archery performance after controlling for sport-specific physical fitness. 4) Youth archery training should prioritize the monitoring of draw-hold time and average grip strength and facilitate the transformation of basic physical strength into sport-specific movement stability.